(originally written March 17. Posted March 28)
The recent issue of TIME magazine included a scribbling by someone named Reihan Salam. His article “The Dropout Economy” is somewhat sensationalistic and largely unnoteworthy, except for the fact that it directly references the writings of a guy named John Robb, whose ideas on “resilient communities” were footnoted in the article I co-wrote for McKinsey last year, on the future of energy.
Which means that my company’s thought leadership is a full year ahead of the curve of TIME magazine’s ever-shrinking readership. And based on a quick search of The Economist’s website, they haven’t even heard of the term.
Robb — a former US Air Force guy who helped mainstream RSS feeds — posits that due to a confluence of factors (financial, demographic, technological) the nation-state is going to be under tremendous pressure in the coming decades. As a result, communities will reorient themselves to resiliency as opposed to efficiency. (His blog is here.)
This might be best understood through analogies:
- Redmond’s Technosaurus Rex beat out its corporate competition in the PC era. But its dominance has eroded in the face of competition from decentralized, ad hoc open-source code. (Linux, Firefox, OpenOffice and others)
- humans are the dominant animals: with our tools, we can overcome any creature we run into in sky, street or sea. But we don’t look so kingly compared to bacteria: they can develop immunity to our antibiotics faster than we can invent new ones
- the US is the world’s hyperpower: it can overwhelm all its rival nation-states. But like all countries, it’s struggling to deal with threats from terrorist cells, which can be small enough to “fly under the radar” of the traditional defense mechanisms (police, armed forces)
In the past half-century at least, there’s been a strong advantage for communities and countries to be organized on the basis of efficiency, at the expense of resiliency. As such, our world is one of faraway power plants and overseas supply chains. Like Robb, I think the pendulum is swinging (for at least a couple decades) towards resiliency; it will be seen as advantageous enough, even if it seems more expensive than efficiency. And *that* creates the kind of opening that fuel cells and other on-site power generation technologies can richly exploit. :)