EclecticLip

John Robb of Global Guerrillas just wrote a piece for The Oil Drum, which serves as an excellent introduction to the themes he discusses in his blog.

Basically, because of peak oil, there’s little or no excess oil production capacity.  Which means a supply disruption — any supply disruption — has worldwide effects.  Which means that a very small group of militants / vandals / saboteurs can punch way above its weight, in geopolitical terms.  In his words, super-empowerment.
Furthermore, since these groups often sell oil on the side (as a means of self-financing) disrupting oil supplies to raise prices is a matter of entrepreneurial self-interest.  It drains the state of its oil revenues, while it increases the guerrilla group’s own earnings.

In a worst-case scenario, like an entrenched super-Mafia, the guerrilla group can maintain effective control over an area.  The case of northern Mexico, pitting relatively-underfinanced government forces against richly-financed drug gangs, would be a close-to-home example.
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This suggests that peak oil is facilitating the erosion of the nation-state’s  monopoly-of-authority — one of its two defining characteristics (along with territoriality) as per the Westphalian model.

I’m not sure what the full implications are, but it seems peak oil will accelerate the pace at which we find out…

Through DailyKos, news that in New York’s 13th Congressional District (Staten Island), the field now includes:

• Francis H. Powers, GOP candidate
• Francis M. Powers, GOP candidate’s son, running for the Libertarian Party

Oh, to be a fly on the wall at that family’s Thanksgiving dinner this year…

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This really speaks to the problems the GOP is (oh-so-deservedly) having this election cycle.  They’re bleeding support from:

• libertarians, due to the Bush White House’s abuse of government power.  Heck, Ron Paul even prefers Obama over McCain!
• evangelical Christians, many of whom recognize that there’s a lot more to the Christian faith than opposing abortion and gay marriage, and who are tired of being (mis-)represented by the Religious Right.  Especially younger evangelical Christians.  While I don’t think Obama will get 40% of the evangelical vote (hat tip to HuffPo), I think he’ll do very well indeed.
• Hispanics — a demographic Karl Rove has tried desperately to court.  The GOP is unlikely to get many votes after launching their “illegal immigrant” crusade earlier this year.  Even if they personally like John McCain, I doubt many Hispanic Americans will want to support the GOP in any manner.

I think that 2006 was the first sign of a generational shift in US voting patterns, leftwards.  It’s not just that the demographics are becoming favourable to Democrats, as aptly outlined by Judis and Teixeira in The Emerging Democratic Majority.  (Note, I only read the blog, not the book — but the blog has now been absorbed into The Democratic Strategist blog, so the book’s probably the best place to get the argument.)

Apart from demographics, economics will also contribute to GOP woes in the near term — economic crises, such as the one we’re in now, tend to reduce trust in big business and their cronies, and focus voters more on questions of the public good.

Because John McCain was expected to be in attendance, NRA members weren’t allowed to bring guns into the organization’s annual meeting on Friday May 16th.

Also forbidden: pocketknives, scissors, and nail-clippers. Mind you, possession of those items those were never protected by the American Constitution’s Second Amendment.