By my reckoning, the Wings will beat the Pens in the Stanley Cup finals.
This is because emerging teams generally have at least one huge heartbreak before winning. The Pens (12-2 in the playoffs so far) make me think of the ‘83 Oilers, who were 11-1 going into the Finals. Where they got swept, 4-0, by the Islander dynasty.
Like the ‘82-’83 Oilers, the Pens are coming off their second strong year — with core players who lack experience in the Finals. And like the ‘82 Oilers, the ‘07 Pens got knocked out in the first round.
Similar cases would be:
- ‘07 Ducks: won after a trip to the Finals in ‘03
- ‘06 Hurricanes: won after a trip in ‘02 (though admittedly the ‘06 Oilers were hardly a powerhouse)
- ‘97 Wings: won after a Finals loss in ‘95, and after being upset in ‘96 by Colorado
- ‘95 Devils: won after losing a heartbreaker in ‘94 to the Rangers in the semis
- the aforementioned Oilers (choked in the first round in ‘82, swept in the ‘83 Finals)
- the Islanders, who before their dynasty, had a reputation for perennially choking
It isn’t a scientific law, of course, that powerhouse teams have to lose once before winning. The ‘91 Penguins and ‘96 Avalanche won, their first time out. But they were playing relatively weaker teams. Ditto for the ‘04 Lightning and the ‘99 Stars.
Since the Red Wings lineup has a lot more Finals experience than the Pens, I figure that odds are, this time around, age and experience will beat youth and exuberance. We’ll see how it turns out. 