EclecticLip

The mining show this year (2010 - not sure if they recycle the web address annually) featured a lot more well-dressed people than in years past — which probably means a lot of first-timers, which itself means gold is due for a plunge.  All the better to part newcomers and their money. 

Longer-term, the outlook for the shiny-metal-with-the-colour-of-the-sun seems bright, if only because of the dire financial straits most countries seem to be in.  For example, if the interest rates on Japanese debt went up from their current 1.5%-ish to 4%, the annual interest would exceed the government’s entire tax revenues for everything.  This problem is exacerbated by demographic decline: the total population is dropping… but the “working-age” population is dropping much, much faster.  The same problems plague Europe and North America to varying extents.  On the plus side, Japanese vacations may become affordable again…

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In a complimentary copy of Resource World magazine, I saw an ad for a mining firm which noted that Green Technologies are dependent on “exotic” materials like silicon, neodymium, lanthanum, and heavy rare earth metals.  Yes, apparently silicon fits in that category, despite being a component of silica (sand) — the most abundant mineral in the earth’s crust!!

The free issue of BCBusiness featured a roundtable of economists, arguing over what governments should do to support the economy.  I’ve always considered economics to be a bit Rashomon-esque: starting with your political sensibility, you can find an entrenched economic philosophy that affirms it.  And I think the kaleidoscope of contradictory opinion in economics is one reason some business people disbelieve global warming — they can’t believe other fields actually achieve consensus on anything.  Anyways, the article did have an AWESOME moment of truth from John Richards of SFU. 

Q - What might be the most surprising thing in 2010?
A - I am no good at forecasting.

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I noticed a lot of companies from Yellowknife (”diamond capital of North America!”) at the conference, but that’s probably just because we made plans to visit the Northwest Territories in March — part of my ongoing “Tour de Tundra”.  I’m aiming for a Canadian Arctic tourism hat-trick; what with the Yukon two years back and the NWT this year, hopefully we can make it to Nunavut in 2012.  Y’know, before the Mayan calendar flips over. 

The combined Lonely Planet guide to the NWT and Nunavut — 32 pages, downloadable for about $2 — yielded some surprising facts.  For instance, the NWT legislature IS SHAPED LIKE AN IGLOO; and when it comes to official languages, the Territories have not two, not three, not four, not five (…let me skip ahead here…) but ELEVEN.  Eleven official languages, for thirty thousand people!  It puts Switzerland’s three-or-four, to shame. 

Apparently temperatures in Yellowknife in mid-March have ranged from -43 to +22 Celsius.  So, taking my planning cues from corporate leadership, I’ll be packing t-shirts and shorts. 

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Given the visually-staggering inventory piling up, it is difficult to foresee good times returning for automakers, anytime soon.

This image had a nice feel to it — the staggered and uneven rows made me think of the old “space invaders” arcade game.

Friday, the Dow dropped below its late-last-year low.  Consequently, people who believe in Dow Theory conclude that it’ll drop a lot more. Like all popular investing superstitions, this one is self-fulfilling — because, well, it’s popular.

The idea is that, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Transportation Average simultaneously plumb new [twelve-month*] lows… then the primary trend of the US stock market is down, until proven otherwise. (To practitioners of this fiduciary faith, “otherwise” means having the DJIA and DJTA both soar to new [twelve-month*] highs.)

* I chose twelve months out of thin air; Dow Theorists look for local maxima and minima on multi-year stock market charts.

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I’ve seen estimates arguing for the Dow to hit the lower 6000’s before the current shakeout is done, which isn’t unreasonable, for various reasons.

• first, the fundamentals are poor.  Stocks tend to be valued based on price-earnings ratio (though free cash flow is a superior metric) and corporate earnings are a mere “Mini-Me” of their former selves
• secondly, the technical analysis tea leaves predict — like “Clubber Lang” in Rocky III — pain

Still, considering the Japanese Nikkei remains mired below its fifty-year moving average, we’re not so badly off. Yet. Check back in 2019.

(Six years ago the Nikkei’s fifty-year moving average was 9070 as noted here.  Friday it closed at about 7400.)

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Marc at the CCPA notes the BC carbon tax’s first birthday was Feb 18, with a rather depressing fairy tale.  Hopefully her second birthday will find her better-appreciated than she currently is, in her stunted state. (Ten bucks a tonne won’t drive any consumer behaviour.  Nor will fifteen bucks a tonne.)

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I suppose the appropriate analogy would be that this is the first anniversary of the conception of the carbon tax, July 1st being its actual “date of birth”.

Well, here’s to hoping that she has a dino-sized growth spurt from turkey-sized compsognathus to titanic T-Rex (or should that be tyrannosaurus regina?) with appropriate redirection of funds towards emissions-offsetting projects and infrastructure, and tax cuts veering strongly progressive.

The Tory government’s TFSA (tax-free savings account) is an example of a stunningly regressive tax benefit — its benefits skew disproportionately to the wealthy.  And it’s projected to be expensive too - roughly $50 million in lost tax revenue in ‘09, $150 million in ‘10… pretty soon, you’re talking about real money!

The Vancouver gold show was this weekend. Sadly, the freebies were scant this time around, even worse than during the “great lamentation” of mid-2005. The most creative one was from a company doing work in Australia, giving away monogrammed boomerangs. (Made in China, of course.)

Intriguingly, the free plastic bags featured additives from local company epi; they’re supposed to disintegrate the plastic into powdered pellets, over the course of a few months. I’d run into epi at an environmental show a few years back; they seem to’ve made some progress getting their products out there. It’ll be interesting to follow their business arc over the next few years.

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This is attention-worthy, if only because oil sector workers in both the US and the UK are striking (or about to).

Added to the humbling of the London financial sector, the pummelling of the pound sterling, and even rumours of a bank holiday, and it’s probably an interesting time to be a Briton, in all the worst ways.

A couple days ago, I came across two articles about Nippon Oil’s plans to JV their way into solar power and fuel cells production, respectively.  Both projects are with Sanyo (recently taken over by Panasonic, the new official name of Japanese behemoth Matsushita Electric).

This struck me as inspirational, because Nippon Oil is Japan’s largest oil company!  Its core competency, or comparative advantage, is fossil fuels and petrochemicals.  But instead of choosing to fight a bruising, unethical, long rear-guard action to deny global warming or defend its old ways…  management has decided the company needs to evolve.
It’s reminiscient of the decision by pulp-mill / tire-maker Nokia to get into telecommunications.  I’m sure there were doubters — especially since their telco division took seventeen years to turn a profit.  But was it worth it in the end?  I’m sure every Nokia shareholder would now vote “yes”.

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I figure I’ll continue my (seven? eight?) year streak of attending the Vancouver Gold Show this week.  Given the annihilation of the junior miner sector in the past six months, it’ll be interesting to take a pulse of the show.  Will it be swarming with contrarians, confident in the imminence of better times?  Or will it be relatively dead — the public having more to worry about than how to invest their capital?  (Like, oh, keeping their jobs.)

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I’ve encountered a major fallacy in two fields, relating to the incorrect application of a steady-state assumption.  So I’m making it a category.

I’m going to say arguments suffer from a steady-state fallacy when they improperly assume that a present-day circumstance will carry over unchanged into the future.  Because over time, most circumstances do change.  People get older.  New technologies emerge.  Empires fall, and new ones rise. And so forth.
A few examples below the fold…

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I posted recently on the topic of executive greed, and how it could have impaired American automakers’ ability to compete with Japanese automakers.

John Robb posted much more eloquently on this, in greed is….  The salient passage is this (emphasis mine):

If approach this from the perspective of game theory and evolutionary biology, the propagation of greed as a virtue among elites is a game changer. It is a survival strategy mightily benefits the early adopters and confers great success. We have clearly seen evidence of this in our experience (from multi-billion dollar fortunes to CEO pay w/o reference to performance to Hamptons estates..). However, once greed becomes a universal survival strategy, it destroys system value (as the formal rules of intrinsic/moral fair play are replaced by hideously expensive and slow enforcement/legal mechanisms). It can also result in the type of massive economic collapse we are seeing today.

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