Archive forauto sector

Auto sector inventory

Given the visually-staggering inventory piling up, it is difficult to foresee good times returning for automakers, anytime soon.

This image had a nice feel to it — the staggered and uneven rows made me think of the old “space invaders” arcade game.

Auto inventory

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Those (not-so) crazy gold bugs…

Rob McEwen — founder of Goldcorp — got a mention in Bloomberg the other day, basically about his predictions that gold would hit:

  • US$2000/oz…  by end-2010
  • US$5000/oz…  at its peak

He’d have a lot less credibility if not for his track record.  :)

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The decline of the Prius has been WAY exaggerated

Toyota’s in an interesting spot this year.  The new Prius is being overshadowed, what with the flurry blizzard of electric car announcements from naerly every carmaker, including Chinese battery upstart BYD.

One of the newer members of Warren Buffett’s investment stable, BYD deserves kudos for nipping the First World automakers with their product — which is already on sale in China!

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The steady-state fallacy

I’ve encountered a major fallacy in two fields, relating to the incorrect application of a steady-state assumption.  So I’m making it a category.

I’m going to say arguments suffer from a steady-state fallacy when they improperly assume that a present-day circumstance will carry over unchanged into the future.  Because over time, most circumstances do change.  People get older.  New technologies emerge.  Empires fall, and new ones rise. And so forth.
A few examples below the fold…

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Signs of the times

Toyota substantially expanded production over the past decade or so, when demand was artificially increased by easy credit. I can’t help think that contributed to this announcement: an unprecedented eleven-day shutdown at its Japanese factories.

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