The Export Land Model (understanding oil prices)

I’ve been a near-daily reader (and nearly-never commenter) of The Oil Drum since 2005*. Simply put, it’s the premiere site for learning about energy issues, with a daily news round-up and many dedicated, thoughtful, and very-well-informed contributors, many of them from the fossil fuels industry.
One of the most important insights I’ve gained from the site is Jeffrey Brown’s Export Land Model, which posits that world oil exports will fall faster than overall world production. He first published it in January ‘06; I couldn’t find the original article, but these two links go over the issue nicely; the latter is quite timely, too.

To elaborate a little, as oil prices rise, economic expansion in oil-exporting countries means they’ll consume more of their own oil, leaving less for export. Even if demand from oil-importing countries merely stays steady, the same amount of money will be chasing a smaller amount of oil. Causing upward pressure on prices on the open market.
As an “early adopter” of the theory, it’s been nice to see the Export Land Model starting to get attention… and from the investor community, no less. See here and here.
So far, I don’t know of any celebrated newspaper opinionists penning / typing columns about it, so the ELM probably hasn’t yet hit the tipping point…
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Back then, before Katrina, when the price of oil was in the US$50 a barrel range, and The Oil Drum was still hosted by blogspot.

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