Energy endgame
Seems to me, the endgame for GHG-free electric power generation will be:
- geothermal for baseline power
- solar thermal to handle the brunt of peak daytime loads (nice intro here)
- PV solar for local distributed power (as per the “smart grid” or Al-Gore-coined “electranet”)
Extensive wind installations also may be able to provide some baseline power, as well. And hopefully they can come on-stream soon — there’s not a month to lose, since climate trends are worse than every IPCC model. That’s worse than even the IPCC’s worst-case model.
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Now, at the risk of sounding utterly callous, how to bet on this…? It’s too late for the first upwave in PV solar, and wind is already an established, mature industry. Solar thermal companies are generally privately-held for now. Geothermal could have potential though — at least, the companies are public and tiny.
Western Geopower recently announced a $500 million deal in California, which would basically give them US$26 million in revenue a year. On a market cap of $84 million. But of course, that’s revenue, not earnings. And Sierra Geothermal has a market cap of $36 million. I’ll report out when I learn more about how these guys’ll make money. 